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Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Chicago’s moment to leap to the future

With nearly 75% of the US population expressing the idea that racism is a problem for the country, it is clear that the country is in deep thoughts as to how to get rid of the cancer affecting its soul. A modern society, afflicted by the disease of racism, could have a rather pessimistic prognosis. On the other hand, if most of the country sees the problem, then, we can certainly solve it. As they say in medicine, early diagnosis almost always leads to better outcomes. And, in the pain and despair of a horrible incident, Chicago has a unique opportunity to lead the country and perhaps the world out of ignorance and a curable disease through education and the advancement of culture.

Chicago has been at the forefront of advancing emerging ideas in economics, science, arts and journalism. Its educational institutions opened the eyes of those seeking knowledge but the city itself, could not get out of its artificially imposed boundaries, allowing irrational thoughts and actions to percolate through. In the process, they suffered from violence and segmented islands of wealth, information and ignorance. A city, that led in thought and culture advancement has been trailing in practical actions, however. Steeped in political corruption for decades, the city has been losing its just position in history. It will be a shame if one of the greatest cities in the world, sub optimizes itself, not because of lack of knowledge but of the constraints self imposed on itself.

This is Chicago’s moment to leap to the future. It has leaped many times before to open the eyes of the world. Now, it is time for introspection and out of that will come strength to leap again. 

A small leap for Man and a big jump for Math

Recent news that a University of Chicago mathematician may have reduced a NP complexity problem of network comparisons to that akin to P level complexity, signals a jump in knowledge in otherwise stagnant field. Consumed by big data and bigger noise, mathematicians and data scientists have been burning the midnight oil, solving everything under the Sun, using century old techniques and faster computers. In the process, most forget to think and step aside to see the challenge in front of them could be simplified before diving deep.

In the age of cheap hardware and companies plush with cash, innovation appears stagnant. Making a neural net with thousands of computers in a network is not innovation, it is just a show of brawn over brains. Pumping large number of rules through a supercomputer in an attempt to beat a human recollecting random facts is not innovation, it is scaling ignorance. Collecting, storing and analyzing large amounts of noise in an attempt to discover complex heuristics is not innovation, it is just sticking one’s head in the cloud.

Innovation happens but only rarely. Reducing the complexity of a problem class, fits the bill perfectly.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

The economics of violence

Organizations – religions, countries and country clubs, operate on a simple idea. Individuals in a system have a put option with a limited exercise horizon and if the system can coax an individual to exercise it prematurely for the presumed benefit of the system, then the managers of the system could effectively do anything they want. Since the objective function of the system itself is fuzzy and ill defined, managers do not need to show optimality and they can use anecdotes and unproven hypotheses, to elicit premature and suboptimal exercise from a small number of individuals. The act of violence, perpetuated by closed systems, autocratic and strategic, with benefits accruing to a small percentage of the members, require the ones on top convincing a few to engage in irrational acts by demonstrating the asset they hold is wasting and a premature extinguishing of their own lives is optimal, if not for themselves but the system itself.

For hundred thousand years, humans killed and mutilated their way to glory, aided and abetted by clan leaders, fully aware of what they were doing. If the value of an individual demonstrably improves, then it will diminish the ability of clan leaders to force premature exercise of put options held by the individual. Education, the only tool, that could improve asset values in closed systems, may be the last hope for humans, slipping away to oblivion at the height of their ascendancy. Education and knowledge have been stagnating, however, with a few drinking from fire hydrants and others infinitely seeking the illusive mirage. While some in the valley sleep dreaming about the singularity and the cure for death, there are seven billion elsewhere, without a clue what tomorrow is going to bring.

The foundations, sitting on billions still debating whether to provide white or pink nets to cure malaria, may have to rethink their strategy. If they really want to cure the ills of the world, they have to improve the knowledge content of humans.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Puppet show

The Unified Microbiome Initiative (UMI), as described in a recent article in Science, albeit belated, is a step in the right direction. As indicated by one of the founding members from the department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago, it has been abundantly clear that microorganisms play a critical role in the welfare of humans. Perhaps, UMI should go a bit further – it is not just that microorganisms have a critical role in health and disease of humans in a tactical sense, they may be controlling how humans evolve, a true strategic imperative.

Intelligence has been ill defined. Ability to maximize utility for the system seems to move inversely to the complexity of the individual. Thus, humans, on top of the food chain, appear least competent to maximize societal utility. An alternative definition of intelligence is the ability of the individual to contribute to system welfare. Here, microorganisms are dominant. They have been here for 4 billion years and they will likely be here for another 4 billion before the Sun throws a temper tantrum and balloon to a red giant. Meanwhile, the “intelligent,” will likely perish in an asteroid impact within perhaps a few 100s of thousands of years.

More importantly, humans appear almost ignorant of the systemic effect imparted on them by microorganisms. The DNA provided by the parasites far surpasses any bits and pieces of the human DNA admitted to the ecosystem, some affectionately call, the human body. In this vast universe of organs and food digesting machinery, humans have been dancing to every whim of their visitors in the stomach and elsewhere. Diseases can be forecasted, health can be measured and even death can be predicted by a simple conversation with the Microbiome.

It is ironic that humans are simple puppets to those who have been dominating the Earth for so long.