It's time for universal basic income

Finland's grand experiment, albeit in small scale, in providing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) without preconditions, ushers in a new dawn in modern societal design. The idea is already late for many countries as accelerating technology makes routine jobs irrelevant and any education less than college, nearly valueless. It is a regime change in such a short time that disallows gradual adjustments and it affects large swaths of populations across the world. Finely tuned welfare programs that create a disincentive for the poor to seek work and policies such as minimum wages that curb opportunities for the young to gain experience, has been creating stress in the social fabric for many decades. UBI will not only correct such disincentives but also remove the cost and inefficiencies associated with the bureaucracies that manage such programs.

The objective function for a modern society is clear - maximize aggregate happiness. Most research on happiness indicate an inverted U relationship with significant disutility in the absence of basic necessities or the fear of not having them in the future. UBI will remove such fear but avoid any disincentive effects. More importantly, UBI could provide optionality for each individual with private utility functions to select optimal pathways to maximize own happiness. If each individual has the flexibility to design such pathways, then society will unambiguously maximize aggregate happiness. What's missing from the status-quo of centrally administered myriad of welfare programs is flexibility for the individual to maximize own utility, unencumbered by the lack of basic necessities - food, shelter, health and information. UBI could provide that at a lower cost than current programs.

Universal Basic Income is conceptually and practically elegant. But to implement it, politicians have to acquire a desire to do something good during the course of their long and uninterrupted careers.

Change resistant society

As India copes with demonetization - a minor perturbation to a cash dominated society - it is clear that its long history and comparatively low diversity may be contributing to significant resistance to change - any change. A democratic system, largely driven by a few personalities since independence, has been trying to break out for ever but India remains to be a "country with unrealized but great potential." In spite of the legend, not many tortoises win races as they succumb to watching laggards zoom past them. To propel the country to the next level, it has to substantially change its attitude, and it is unlikely with the current generation, steeped in pride, history and an unwavering ability to cling to the status-quo.

Even though it is one of the largest economies on a purchasing power parity basis, it is highly insular thanks to "strategic policies," pursued by its non-capitalist leaders from inception. It does not figure in the top 100 countries on exports or imports as measured as a percent of GDP. It is also symptomatic of its lack of understanding as to how economies grow. Specializing in its own comparative advantages and freely trading with others who do other things better, is a simple economic principle, something the leaders in India never seem to have understood. No country is good at everything, India included, but this could be anathematic to the Indian diaspora, let alone its leaders.

Blindly following what seems to be successful elsewhere is an equally dangerous proposition, especially if they are pushed by policy makers enamoured by what they see on trips abroad. And, India's leaders appear to be very prone to this disease. The wisdom of a few has never been shown to be effective in understanding and implementing optimal policies. What India needs is globalization not transplantation - and the confidence to free trade and implement free markets. If so, there appears to be no stopping it but it is a tall order.

A new spin on Artificial Intelligence

New research from Tohoku University (1) demonstrating pattern finding using low energy solid state devices, representing synapses (spintronics), has potential to reduce the hype of contemporary artificial intelligence and move the field forward incrementally. Computer scientists have been wasting time with conventional computers and inefficient software solutions on what they hope to be a replication of intelligence. However, it has been clear from the inception of the field that engineering processes and know-how fall significantly short of its intended goals. The problem has always been hardware design and the fact that there are more software engineers in the world than those who focus on hardware, has acted as a brake on progress.

The brain has always been a bad model for artificial intelligence. A massive energy hog that has to prop itself up on a large and fat storing gut just to survive, has always been an inefficient design to create intelligence. Largely designed to keep track of routine systems, the brain accidently took on a foreign role that allowed abstract thinking. The over design of the system meant that it could do so with relatively small incremental cost. Computer scientists' attempts to replicate the energy inefficient organ, designed primarily for routine and repeating tasks, on the promise of intelligence have left many skeletons in the long and unsuccessful path to artificial intelligence. The fact that there is unabated noise in the universe of millennials about artificial intelligence is symptomatic of a lack of understanding of what could be possible.

Practical mathematicians and engineers are a bad combination for effecting ground breaking innovation. In the 60s, this potent combination of technologists designed the neural nets - to simulate what they felt was happening inside the funny looking organ. For decades, their attempts to "train," their nets met with failure with the artificial constructs taking too long to learn anything or spontaneously becoming unstable. They continued with the brute force method as the cost of computers and memory started to decline rapidly. Lately, they have found some short cuts that allows faster training. However, natural language processing, clever video games and autonomous cars are not examples of artificial intelligence by any stretch of the imagination.

To make artificial intelligence happen, technologists have to turn to fundamental innovation in hardware. And, they may be well advised to lose some ego and seek help from very different disciplines such as philosophy, economics and music. After all, the massive development of the human brain came when they started to think abstractly and not when they could create fire and stone tools at will.

1. William A. Borders, Hisanao Akima, Shunsuke Fukami, Satoshi Moriya, Shouta Kurihara, Yoshihiko Horio, Shigeo Sato, Hideo Ohno. Analogue spin–orbit torque device for artificial-neural-network-based associative memory operation. Applied Physics Express, 2017; 10 (1): 013007 DOI: 10.7567/APEX.10.013007

Coding errors

A recent publication in Nature Communications (1) seems to confirm that DNA damage due to ionizing radiation is a cause of cancer in humans. The coding engine in humans has been fragile, prone to mistakes even in the absence of such exogenous effects. As humans attempt interplanetary travel, their biggest challenge is going to be keeping their biological machinery, error free. Perhaps what humans need is an error correction mechanism that implicitly assumes that errors are going to be a way of life. Rather than attempting to avoid it, they have to correct it optimally.

Error detection and correction have been important aspects of electronic communication. Humans do have some experience with it, albeit in crude electronic systems. The human system appears to be a haphazard combination of mistakes made over a few million years. They have been selected for horrible and debilitating diseases and every time they step out into the sunlight, their hardware appears to be at risk. It is an ironic outcome for homosapiens who spent most of their history naked under the tropical sun. Now ionized radiation from beyond the heavens render them paralyzed and ephemeral.

Perhaps it is time we have taken a mechanistic and computing view of humans. The clever arrangement of $26 worth of chemicals seem to last a very short period of time, stricken down by powerful bugs or her own immune system. Now that bugs have been kept at a safe distance, it is really about whether the system can code and replicate optimally. The immediate challenge is error detection and correction at a molecular level. If some of the top minds, engaged in such pointless activities as investing, death curing and artificial intelligence, could focus on more practical matters, humans can certainly come out ahead.


(1) http://esciencenews.com/articles/2016/09/13/study.reveals.how.ionising.radiation.damages.dna.and.causes.cancer