Monday, December 12, 2016

Democracy's event horizon

Recent results from a survey (1) of 2200 Americans showing over 1 in 4 believe that the sun goes around the earth is problematic for democracy. The system, that reflects the aggregate opinion of all participants, has served humanity well in recent years. However, the same characteristic could be its Achilles' heel as its leaders will have to reflect its population. If aggregate knowledge present in a democratic society falls below a threshold value, it can act like the event horizon of a black hole. Once through it, there is no turning back as it will spiral down to a singularity.

There have been telltale signs in many democratic societies for some time. In the world's largest democracy, elections were decided by last names and not policy choices. In Southern Europe, star power has been more dominant. More recently, powerful democratic countries have opted for less optimal outcomes. All of these may imply that democracy, as a system, is running out of its originally intended use - assure optimum outcomes for society in the long run. Instead, it is now more likely to reinforce low knowledge content, if it is dominant.

One democracy appears to have resisted the race to the bottom. Down under, where penalties are imposed for those not bothering to vote, high turn-out has assured that knowledge content of the voters is above the democratic event horizon. It appears that the prescription for ailing democracies returning sub-optimal results is to enhance voter turnout, possibly by the imposition of penalties. The biased selection in the non-voter cohort may be just enough to keep the system from the plunge to the unknown.

(1) http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/14/277058739/1-in-4-americans-think-the-sun-goes-around-the-earth-survey-says